A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
